As we know, Mexico is experiencing one of the most important electoral processes in its history, with the renewal of 20,000 public positions throughout the country. Till April 24 of this year, most polls maintain Claudia Sheinbaum as the frontrunner for the Presidency in Mexico, with a lead that doubles the voting intention of Xóchitl Gálvez, her closest rival.
The Survey of Surveys (Political Expansion model that considers the results of more than 40 pollsters with 556 exercises) poses a very high probability (98%) of Sheinbaum winning the election next June 2 (As of April 24). Therefore, could we conclude that the winner of the June 2, 2024 election is already decided? The answer to that question is still NO. The final results will be known until election day, that is where they are defined the votes, so no statistical model, publication, poll or artificial intelligence robot can say with accuracy and consistency what the results will be.
Based on this, we can take as a reference, the different positions of the citizens during the race in the last month, the last week, the day of the election and even in line at the polling station…
Apparently, there is an opportunity in the race to take advantage of this possibility of growth for the candidate who is below Sheinbaum, because there is a whole month left to connect with audiences that do not have a definite voting position. Given this, we can ask an additional question in this process: Do presidential debates change approval and voting positions towards candidates? Massively changing voter preferences from a presidential debate seems unlikely. There are studies that confirm the change of vote after a presidential debate, but in a relatively small magnitude.
Therefore, it is necessary to understand the results, based on different positions. Especially those who do not change their position and maintain their preference for the same candidate should be examined in greater depth, the debate can reaffirm this preference in a more reliable way. In other words, the debates also serve to reaffirm those who have already made up their minds. 
There are other effects of the debates on potential voters. On one hand, there is evidence that debates contribute to provide citizens with more information, so they can make more confident and informed decisions. In this sense, a decrease in support is also documented when there is evident political brazenness, particularly when one of the candidates does not clearly answer key questions in such exercises, reinforcing voting positions. These effects are greater for those who watched more than one debate compared to those who watched only one debate, showing that debates have certain cumulative effects and are not a mere repetition of the previous one. This means that reactions to the next presidential debate in Mexico on April 28 are likely to be important in the run-up to the elections.
In the Secretos D. México demoscopic exercise, we identified some secrets that the candidates may consider in the run-up to the second presidential debate:
At Secretos de México, we have solutions focused on understanding and decoding the secrets of Mexicans, to share with our clients and allies, based on tangible recommendations for sustained growth in their businesses, industries, audiences and connection goals with their key segments.
